The Dubai market has provided opportunities since COVID that have literally changed people’s financial lives. Investors are now naturally wondering if the opportunity has passed them by or if there are still opportunities and potential to make solid money over the coming years. We have gone through the first half of the year, and here is a clean, data-driven read on H1-2025 and what it signals for H2-2025 into 2026.
Where transactions were heaviest (H1-2025)
Top areas by number of deals (DLD data):
Al Barsha South Fourth – 10,469
Al Yalayis 1 – 7,595
Wadi Al Safa 5 – 7,178
Next tier included Business Bay (6,601), Dubai Marina (6,428), Airport City (5,569), Jebel Ali First, Al Thanyah Fifth, Burj Khalifa (Downtown), Meaisem First.
Top areas by value (H1-2025):
Dubai Marina – AED 25.1bn
Business Bay – AED 22.5bn
Burj Khalifa (Downtown Dubai) – AED 17.1bn
Palm Jumeirah – AED 16.96bn
(also high: Al Yalayis 1, Meaisem Second, Wadi Al Safa 5, Airport City, Al Barsha South Fourth).
Big H1-2025 market signals (headline numbers):
Record half-year: total real-estate procedures exceeded AED 431bn, with circa 99k sales and strong investor participation.
Off-plan continued to lead the way (circa 65%+ share by count) with apartments accounting for 80% of deals; meanwhile, secondary gained momentum.
Price growth is still positive (values up ~14% y/y to June), but it is more segmented by community.
Supply pressure: 20k+ units delivered in H1, with a large handover wave expected in H2; pipeline 200k+ through 2027. Completions concentrated in JVC, Sobha Hartland, and MBR City. We have continued to speak about trepidation in areas with high concentrations of handovers.
DXBinteract mid-year: transactions +22.5% y/y by count, +40% by value; mortgages up by volume but lower average ticket, more cash but placed on smaller loans.
Hot Locations:
Value magnets: Marina, Business Bay, Downtown/Burj Khalifa, Palm — luxury/brand-led stock, investor depth, and liquidity; these continue to set the pace for AED value.
Volume workhorses: Al Barsha South Fourth, Al Yalayis 1, Wadi Al Safa 5 — areas with heavy off-plan launches and mid-market price points (broad buyer pools, investor-friendly ticket sizes). At Off Plan Dubai, we do not cover these areas, but appreciate the ‘bulk’ of the market they provide.
Affordable/mid-market momentum: JVC/Arjan/Dubailand corridors saw big handovers and sales churn; this is where any supply-driven price moderation shows up first.
What to watch out for in H2-2025 → 2026
1) Supply digestion vs. price growth
The handover bulge in H2 (after 20k+ in H1) should cool quarterly price growth for mid-market apartments in outer corridors; expect more competitive pricing & incentives from developers. Prime/luxury remains more resilient but likely slower growth off a higher base.
2) Off-plan still dominant, but resale continues its race to catch up:
DXBinteract shows secondary prices rising faster y/y than off-plan in several segments; that can keep ready units in mature family communities (e.g., Dubai Hills, Arabian Ranches, Jumeirah Park) in demand. DXB Interact
3) Financing mix
Mortgage counts up, values down → more cash buyers/smaller LTVs. If rates ease into 2026, you could see resale liquidity improve and upgrade activity pick up.
4) Infrastructure catalysts
DWC/Al Maktoum Airport expansion and Dubai South narrative continue to build; land/early-phase townhouse projects there should see sustained enquiry.
5) Leasing
Rent growth moderating from 2023–24 highs as supply lands, especially in studios/1-beds; villa rents remain stickier due to scarcer stock. (
Strategy for an investor (actionable):
Hold/accumulate in value-dense, liquid cores (Marina, Business Bay, Downtown micro-units with strong STR/long-let demand) for AED value preservation and exit liquidity.
Selective growth in outer mid-market (JVC/Al Barsha South Fourth/Wadi Al Safa 5) after handover waves. Negotiate on post-handover inventory, focus on buildings with proven leasing velocity and realistic service charges.
Resale family villas/townhouses
Target ready units in established school-adjacent communities; these held pricing better in H1 and should remain bid if rates ease in 2026.
Launch discipline
For off-plan, prioritise tier-1 developers, construction progress, escrow discipline, and delivery track record. Be wary of over-amenitised, high-service-charge stock marketed on glossy yields.
Yield guardrails (quick rules of thumb)
Aim for net 5–6% on prime cores, 6.5–7.5% on mid-market. Stress-test at +100 bps cap-rate and –10% rent; avoid deals that break covenants under that.
H1 2025 Community Breakdown: Apartments vs Villas:
While complete community-level splits (units, value, yields) aren’t published in a single source, we can build a clear picture using available data:
Overall performance (H1 2025):
Apartment units sold: 73,863 – Up 15% vs H1 2024.
Total sales volume: +22.5%; sales value: +40.1% YoY.
Off-plan share: primary market (off-plan) 54,529 transactions; secondary (ready) 37,369
Apartment yields: 7.2%; villa yields: 5%
Top apartment-focused communities:
Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, and Dubai Production City were leading hubs in the off-plan space.
Downtown Dubai apartments: average sales price AED 4.31M; ROI 5.68%
Trends to note:
Apartments dominate in volume, driven by off-plan activity in mid-market corridors.
Villas, especially luxury, fetch premium pricing and appeal to long-term and high-net-worth buyers, but yield slightly lower.
Resale/home-ready units are gaining traction alongside off-plan, moderating dynamics between segmented market tiers
Handover & Supply Timeline: H2-2025 and Into 2026
H1 2025 Completions & Pipeline:
Units completed: 17,300
Units under construction: 61,800; projected for 2026–27: 100k+
New unit registrations in H1: 90,337; projected 150,000 by year-end; 250k across 2023–2026, with peak deliveries in 2026 (120k)
2025–2026 Supply Surge:
An estimated 41,000 and 42,000 planned completions are expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Fitch projects up to a 15% decline in prices during H2 2025 into 2026 due to a supply glut, though prime areas may soften less.
Specific Handovers & Development Trends:
High-profile handovers are scheduled, for example, at Creek Crescent and Emaar Beachfront Residences.
Notable recent handover: Westwood Grande II in JVC, 153 units delivered in May 2025.
Handover delays are common, affecting 62% of scheduled 2025 projects, and this rate further drops to around 48% in 2026 due to supply chain and logistical pressures.
Summary: What This Means (H2 2025 → 2026)
– Apartment (off-plan mid-market corridors): Expect heightened post-handover supply pressure; developers could lean into incentives and discounts to absorb inventory. Expect moderation in price growth.
– Prime apartments (Marina, Downtown, Palm): Resilient, but likely slower growth, still a yield haven for investors. Some projects are fundamentally undervalued, though this is more prevalent in the ultra-luxury sector in Dubai. For instance, Six Senses Palm Jumeriah is now trading over 100% ROI, still Off-Plan, from its OP.
– Villas (luxury enclaves): Less supply-sensitive inertia; expectations for continued demand from UHNW and speculative investors.
– Rental market: Slight rent softening, especially in studios/1-beds, as new supply gives tenants leverage; villa rents stay firmer due to scarcity.
– Risk factors: Mistimed off-plan exposure (without a clear delivery schedule), over-entering mid-market stock without leasing flow, and reliance on price momentum.
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Off Plan Dubai
Suite: 508, Fairmont,
Sheikh Zayed Road,
P O Box 75671,
Dubai, UAE
Off Plan Dubai
167–169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF.
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