A personal note on Saudi Arabia, the market and what comes next

Hi Everyone,

I hope you and your families are safe and well.

Before discussing property or investment, I want to acknowledge the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and the effect they have had on people across the Kingdom. My thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected, particularly those who have lost loved ones or had their lives disrupted.

This is not a time for false certainty. I do not know what will happen in the region in the immediate future, and I would be wary of anyone who claims that they do.

What I can offer is perspective.

I have worked in the GCC property market for ten years. During that time, we have experienced conflict, political upheaval, the pandemic and periods when markets appeared to stop almost overnight. Many agencies and advisers have come and gone. We are still here, providing the same measured and honest advice, and never playing circumstances up or down for our own benefit.

The economic data should be presented with the same honesty. Saudi Arabia is experiencing a genuine short-term shock. The IMF’s latest forecast anticipates a 3.3% contraction in 2026, followed by a significant 7.9% rebound in 2027. The official Saudi real estate indicators platform also continues to show meaningful domestic activity, with its latest Riyadh dashboard showing about 16,000 transactions totaling SAR 32.3 billion.

The short-term picture is therefore challenging, but the domestic market has not stopped functioning, and the Kingdom’s long-term ambitions have not disappeared.

I have learned repeatedly that trying to time a market perfectly is almost impossible. 

When Russia invaded Ukraine, global capital flows changed rapidly. Dubai received substantial demand from buyers seeking geographically secure, dollar-linked assets through dirham-denominated property. During Covid, buyers’ priorities changed permanently. Demand for space, privacy, and better-quality homes returned strongly after the initial downturn and helped drive Dubai prices upward over the next four years, far beyond the lows when the outbreak was first found.

These events brought enormous human consequences, and I do not refer to them lightly. The investment lesson is simple: periods of disruption often change behaviour, redirect capital, and create opportunities only fully understood in hindsight.

That does not mean every market or every property will perform equally.

Dubai, for example, was already moving into a more selective phase, particularly across the middle of the residential market. More than 13,200 homes were delivered in Q2 2026, with about 32,000 more completions expected in the second half of the year. City-wide residential prices fell approximately 4% quarter-on-quarter, while rents softened by around 6%. After five years of exceptional growth, greater supply is now giving buyers and tenants more choice.

That is not the end of Dubai’s market. It means location, scarcity, quality and entry price matter again.

The same principles apply to Saudi Arabia.

Our approach is straightforward: choose a location you genuinely believe in, take a long-term view, and create an exposure you are financially and personally comfortable with. Many of the properties we are selling today will not be handed over for another three or four years. We are assessing where these markets may stand at completion, not attempting to predict every event over the next three months. Q4 is always the high of the fiscal year at Off Plan Dubai and the quarter that defines the year’s performance. Circumstances differ, but we have consistently delivered sales across Jeddah, Riyadh, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, and for the right investors, opportunities remain.

We look forward to calmer times, better geopolitical relations, and a growth period for a region ready to shape the future.

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