I hope everyone is doing well. I am currently sitting in the heart of Mayfair in a coffee shop, typing this, and looking forward to the launch of Fahid Island today. Many astute, long-term investors are about to purchase a future icon in Abu Dhabi real estate at the very initial launch prices. This is fundamental to our recommendations and role.
Last week, Fitch Ratings Agency predicted a 15% market correction in the Dubai market in late 2025 that will continue into the early stages of 2026. For those who speak to me regularly, we have been predicting this for the last 8/12 months. As someone who has been in the market for over a decade, I wanted to give my thoughts on how it would benefit the market and help investors in the long term.
Fundamentally, I believe in the market now and in the future. Investments now more than ever have to have a mid/long-term play, but if you buy in the correct location, from the right developer at the right price, you will see opportunities a-plenty over the coming years.
The Forecast
Prices could dip 10-15% in the next 18 months.
Why? Oversupply
250,000 Units launched in 203-24 with 120,000 units scheduled for handover in 2026.
Population Growth stands at 5% per year.
Too many apartments mean Rental Yields will slip as the supply hits the market, causing weaker areas and over-leveraged developers to hit the market.
What does this mean?
Prime Villas / Prime Masterplans and Quality Developers – likely safe
Speculative Apartment Zones – Real Risk Ahead
If Fitch is cautious, banks and lenders will start to be, too. Over-leveraged developers will become susceptible to these market fluctuations.
15%?
If 15% is the maximum figure, the market would be at levels seen in early 2024. Those who have invested in the market for extended periods would remember 2008 and pre-COVID market dynamics. Think long-term, buy what lasts for families once the buying hype fades.
Opportunites
If you have been looking at a ready property, in the next year or so, you will find the prices at which you may be more willing to transact. Many investors will see opportunities, and the number of transactions may increase as people ‘buy the dip’.
Developers improve payment plans. If off-plan transactions stabilise, developers will offer better payment terms to entice buyers. This will be minimal in prime locations, but if you like to purchase with speculative developers in a risk range portfolio, you will see offers that may attract.
How to navigate?
We pride ourselves on promoting projects, developers, and master plans we believe in. I say no more than I would ever say yes when investors ask for advice. No one can ever accurately predict the future, but there are principles I adhere to that help us best avoid any market issues.
Developer – Always pick a government-backed developer or an extremely cash-rich private one. Aldar / Emaar – Government Backed. DAR Global / Select / Omniyat – Publicly listed cash-rich developers. These developers don’t need your installment payments to complete builds. You could get real development issues if you get a % of over-leveraged off-plan investors within one particular project.
Masterplan—The best developers don’t build individual Tower Blocks or 30 Villas in the desert. They harbour communities and facilities that emphasise the standard of living and the finished project. In the right master plan, the whole community drives appreciation. What schools, medical, and other facilities are being built where you invest?
Master plans that will outperform others and be less susceptible to market fluctuations:
Polo
Oasis
Dubai Hills Estate
Beachfront
Fahid Island
Yas Island
Athlon
DIFC
Dubai Islands
Location—Recently, you have seen that we have shifted into the Abu Dhabi market more prominently. Aldar will be one of the most important developers in the GCC over the next 10 years. Abu Dhabi is targeting HNW families, and the Villa launches are some of the best you will see anywhere in the world. It is less busy and family-oriented, and you will see a conscious shift in buying habits from Dubai to Abu Dhabi. We believe in diverse portfolios, whether unit type or location, which is why you see us covering areas such as London, Manchester, Riyadh, Jeddah, Oman, Qatar, and Marbella, among others.
Entry Price – Your purchasing price per sqft matters most at the entry point. When buying off-plan, you should look at a project that is around 30-40% below market value if that product is ready in the completed master plan. This week’s recent transaction in Six Senses Palm, a two-bedroom, was exchanged above the 20m AED mark for the first time. It was initially purchased for 12m and has now been sold 3 times during construction. If the original investor had kept the unit, the returns on Capital from the 60/40 payment plan would now surpass 100%. When launched, some investors would think that 12m for a 2-bedroom apartment was expensive. But it had the correct location, a leading brand behind it, and comparables in the vicinity showed it was vastly under-valued compared to if it were ready.
Industry – Speaking candidly, the level of Real Estate employees working in the Dubai Real Estate market isn’t of an industry-leading standard. They chase quick wins for quick paydays. In the last 4 years, anyone can sell in this market; it sells itself. When the market turns a couple of %, you will see agents calling you, telling you to sell now before you lose more money, creating a false panic, and them wanting a commission when the correct advice may be completely different, but it doesn’t benefit their pocket.
Agents don’t take a basic wage from 99% of the real estate agencies, and their tactic has always been to throw enough s**t at a wall, and some will stick.
Every other person in Dubai seems to be a property expert and a current agent. I look forward to the market becoming difficult and true advice and expertise being valued again. Over the coming years, you will see most agents flushed out of the ecosystem and a smaller, well-informed collection of agents still trading.
Honesty & Integrity
I hope you can see that no matter what happens in the future, our advice comes from a place of integrity, market knowledge, and above all, honesty.
Play mid/long term, embrace the whole journey, and if you believe fundamentally in the market and region, as I do, a market correction can provide opportunities and risk simultaneously. Enjoy the highs, embrace and plan for the lows.
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Off Plan Dubai
Suite: 508, Fairmont,
Sheikh Zayed Road,
P O Box 75671,
Dubai, UAE
Off Plan Dubai
167–169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF.
The floor plans and brochure for this development will be emailed to you once you request further information from us.
property@offplandubai.ae 
+44 7595 715 264